'Iran will not let any country replace its oil in the market'

Brent crude oil daily chart channel keeps it bullish

India, Turkey, South Korea, and Japan all have close ties with the United States and will find it hard to navigate the Iran question in the short term.

The move is part of the administration's "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran that aims to eliminate all of its revenue from oil exports which the United States says funds destabilizing activity throughout the Mideast and beyond. In part because of soaring domestic production, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week hit a October 2017 high of 460.63 million barrels, the energy information administration said on Wednesday.

"It's hard to imagine all exports being cut off, especially since China is still a major buyer of Iranian crude oil", said Jim Burkhard, vice president for oil markets at IHS Markit.

Iran's foreign minister publicly proposed a prisoner swap that would involve the USA agreeing to release Iranians awaiting extradition in exchange for Tehran freeing detainees like a British-Iranian dual national held on espionage charges.

Many analysts expect Iran to keep exporting some oil.

The tightening of U.S. sanctions announced this week pushed crude oil prices to their highest levels this year.

Also seen as "winners" if oil prices rise were Norway, South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, and Australia.

Wells also hinted that key energy producers - the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia - have been asked to ensure stable oil supplies to all friendly countries and partners, the newspaper report stated. Riyadh has so far refused to commit to increasing oil output. Saudi Arabia on Wednesday responded to the United States move to tighten sanctions on Iran, saying it saw no immediate need for action in the oil market.

This week, the Trump administration announced that it would not be renewing sanctions exemptions on Iranian oil exports that were provided to various countries, including China, Japan and Turkey, among others.

Despite this, Capital Economics said "we still expect oil prices to fall this year as sluggish global growth weighs on oil demand, U.S. shale output grows strongly and investor aversion to risk assets like commodities increases".

Oil prices had already enjoyed a strong recovery this year, with output capped by Russian Federation and Opec.

But it's the decision on oil trade that will have global repercussions.

The pipeline can ship up to 1 million barrels per day (bpd), or 1% of global crude demand, with around 700,000 bpd of flows suspended, according to trading sources and Reuters' calculations. It exported 2.7 million bpd before the sanctions kicked in a year ago. "We estimate that our sanctions have already denied the regime more than $10bn since May [2018]", Mr Hook said.

Zarif said Iran had proposed a prisoner swap to the Donald Trump administration six months ago but had received no response. "China will continue buying Iranian crude, perhaps as high as several hundred thousand bpd, to save face".

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