Brent crude falls to $82 per barrel

Oil price jumps as Opec keeps output steady

But speaking to NBC News on Monday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the United States didn't have the capability to bring the Islamic Republic's oil exports down to zero.

JPMorgan said U.S. sanctions on Iran could lead to a loss of 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), while Mercuria warned that as much as 2 million bpd could be knocked out of the market.

Worldwide outright crude prices have also maintained a bullish tone in recent weeks with front-month ICE Brent futures consistently testing the $80/b this month amid growing concern over the loss of Iranian barrels and the lack of spare capacity amongst its OPEC partners outside Saudi Arabia.

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Even though several European countries have said they are seeking to protect their companies from renewed USA sanctions against Tehran, several major companies such as Total announced they were suspending activities in Iran.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said no immediate output increase was necessary, although he believed a trade war between China and the United States as well as USA sanctions on Iran were creating new challenges for oil markets.

US President Donald Trump slammed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) last week, saying the 15-member oil cartel should keep crude prices low because of the military protection the US provided for the region.

In the meeting, the committee stated that the "current oil market outlook" was satisfactory, with an "overall healthy balance between supply and demand".

Mercuria Energy Group co-founder Daniel Jaeggi for example has said prices could spike well over $100 because the market does not have much spare capacity to replace more than two million barrels a day that will be lost.

He said: "My information is that the markets are adequately supplied".

"OPEC gave a clear answer to Trump, who criticized the group for pushing for higher prices - they obviously refused to submit", said Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities Tokyo.

"I do not influence prices", Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told reporters.

He further said all producers - OPEC and non-OPEC - wanted to keep the price of oil at around $80 per barrel.

The meeting coincided with the commemoration of the 2nd Anniversary of the 170th Extraordinary OPEC Conference, which culminated in the DoC in December of 2016. "Thus the window period for oil prices to potentially extend gains is quite wide as Iran looses exports and OPEC+ remains on standby", Tchilinguirian said. Output fell below those targets this year, and in June the same countries agreed to boost the oil supply. This comes after the US Congress has reconsidered legislation aimed at preventing OPEC from manipulating oil prices. Once the elections are over, the U.S. administration may be willing to bear a higher oil price.

"Given the numbers we saw today, that (an output increase in 2019) is highly unlikely unless we have surprises on the supply and demand", said Al-Falih.



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