AP analysis shows more unopposed Missouri races, GOP edge

Study: GOP won more votes but not consistently in districts

An analysis by The Associated Press shows election lines drawn by South Carolina Republicans after the 2010 Census may have slightly benefited the already dominating party.

The AP analyzed the results of all 435 U.S. House races and about 4,700 state House and Assembly seats up for election a year ago and found a decided advantage for Republicans in numerous states.

The analysis measured the "efficiency gap" in Kentucky's state House races. The Supreme Court has agreed to hear a case, Gill v. Whitford, that could finally settle whether gerrymandering based purely on political party-rather than on race-is unconstitutional. Their mathematical model was cited last fall as "corroborative evidence" by a federal appeals court panel that struck down Wisconsin's Assembly districts as an intentional partisan gerrymander in violation of Democratic voters' rights to representation.

According to the AP data, even though House Republicans averaged 57.6 percent of the vote in the 100 districts across in in 2016, they won or retained 70 seats in the House of Representatives. Political scientists would expect a party to receive 2 percent more seats for every 1 percent over 50 they get in votes.

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer says Senate passage of the Republican bill to replace former President Barack Obama's health law is too close to call. That amounted to an efficiency gap of 10.3 percent favoring Republicans, one of the highest advantages among all states.

The chief architect of a Republican legislative redistricting plan has previously said politics played a key role in drawing lines, but in ways that helped incumbents in both parties. Del.

And that lack of competition in the fall pushes policy further off center, GiaQuinta argues, no matter which party benefits.

Part of the reason may be a political climate of costly, negative campaigns that discourages potential candidates, said Beatty, the House minority leader.

The AP used their method to calculate efficiency gaps for all states that held partisan House or Assembly elections for all of their districts in 2016.

The bill, HB1014, was referred to the Committee on Elections and Apportionment in January but never received a vote. Kottkamp, who later served as lieutenant governor, said lawyers warned lawmakers that there were still rules that had to be followed.

Then-gubernatorial candidate Eric Holcomb told CNHI Indiana that he supported an independent commission in October 2016.

"There is concern around the state about, I don't know if it's so much about gerrymandering, but about disenfranchised voters", he said. You tried to keep communities of interest all together.

Toscano said opposition to Trump is so strong that it's overcome the reluctance Democratic candidates have had in the past to compete in a district with Republican-friendly boundaries.



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