The Enhanced and Slight Risk portion of the outlook covers central and southern IL and IN with the Chicago area partially under the Marginal Risk of severe storms.
The risk of severe weather will slide east into portions of eastern Texas Saturday night.
Patchy morning fog, then clouds & sunshine and warm with a 20% chance for isolated showers or thunderstorms. In the first, we have one model's prediction of what the radar may look like around 9am tomorrow morning. Heavy rain will also cause flash flooding. If all ingredients come together during the afternoon, some of these storms will be strong or severe.
Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail are all likely.
Scattered showers & storms will increase over the area Saturday afternoon ahead of a dry line, and a few storms could turn strong or severe. Most likely not across the entire area, but in certain spots.
The local National Weather Service forecasting office will issue a severe thunderstorm watch when the environment is conducive to produce severe thunderstorms, but they have not actually taken shape. As it approaches the Pine Belt around 5 a.m., the main threats will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, damaging wind (up to 70mph) and hail (up to the size of half dollars). At this point, the greatest risk for severe weather on Sunday will be east of the area. Calm weather expected for Monday night and Tuesday. Depending on the track of the low pressure system, we could see storms fire up across most Central Texas counties. Thanks to the available energy even before the heat of day, and rotation with wind as we go up from the surface, this is an area we will be watching very closely. This could lead to flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas.
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