Support for GOP healthcare bill fades

Time for talk running out, President Donald Trump on Tuesday warned wavering House Republicans that their jobs were on the line in next year's elections if they failed to back a GOP bill that would upend Barack Obama's Affordable Care Act.

These conservative leaders are still open to backing the bill if more conservative changes are made before the vote Thursday.

"It really is a crucial vote for the Republican party", President Trump said Tuesday after mounting a full-court press, trying to get the Republican replacement for Obamacare passed. 59 of those people were, as best as we can tell, ready to vote for a Bill that included a public option.

Even with the revisions, the outlook for House passage remains dicey.

The Michigan delegation's five Democrats are expected to vote against the bill, as are the other 188 House Democrats. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

Trump reminded the members that they have voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, as many as 60 times over the past six years, and that now is the time to adhere to their campaign pledge to repeal it.

"We had a great meeting and I think we're going to get a victor vote", Trump told reporters after leaving the meeting.

Accounting for all these factors, the House bill would increase overall costs for the average New Yorker by $2,708 in 2020, according to an analysis by the Center for American Progress, where I work. Instead of the subsidies available in the Affordable Care Act, the GOP plan provides Americans with refundable tax credits to purchase health insurance. Most of the growth was the result of an increase in federal spending, which rose by 16.0 percent and is a direct result of Medicaid expansion under Obamacare. Fines enforcing the Obama-era requirement that virtually all Americans have coverage would be eliminated.

A Congressional Budget Office analysis found 14 million fewer people would have health coverage nearly immediately if the GOP bill is passed, with that number rising to 24 million fewer people insured by 2026. Rand Paul thinks House leadership will pull the bill on their own, realizing they don't have the votes.

Another sign of that realization: The Freedom Caucus has decided not to vote as a block on the health-care bill, but to leave this one up to individual members to decide.

President Trump will also meet with the Congressional Black Caucus today. Asked if there was a threat to Meadows in that, Collins responded, "There was no threat whatsoever".

"That coverage made a big difference in a lot of people's lives, just like me", he said.

At a rally in Kentucky on Monday night, Trump said he wanted to add a provision to the bill to lower prescription drug costs through a competitive bidding process.

As for Meadows, he was still a "no" vote at the end of the day.

Richard Viguerie, a longtime leader in the conservative movement, was more explicit: "We're going to be looking at the primaries of those who are consistently voting against conservative interests and for the Republican leadership...this absolutely will be on a short list".

If he fails? "It will be very hard to manage this", the Wisconsin Republican told reporters ahead of Thursday's likely vote.

Meanwhile, if the bill passes and is taken up by the Senate next week, enough moderate and conservative Republicans stand opposed that it has no chance of passing there as-is - even with the compromises added this week. Six GOP senators have expressed deep misgivings including Tom Cotton of Arkansas, who said Tuesday he can not support the House bill.

House and Senate Republicans are divided over elements of the tax proposal, with Senate Republicans questioning a House plan that would replace the current 35 percent tax on corporate profits with a border adjustment tax. This includes 196,600 children covered by Medicaid, 43,900 people with disabilities covered by Medicaid and 88,200 seniors who access nursing homes and other care through Medicaid. It would provide tax credits to help people pay medical bills, though generally skimpier than the aid Obama's statute provides. These frauds claim they are for limited government.

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